The match equity table (MET) gives each player's probability of winning the match at every possible score, assuming the two players are equally strong. Knowing these values is essential for correct cube decisions in match play at the Open level. This quiz tests your recall of the Rockwell-Kazaross MET, the standard table (used by XG).
When is it useful to know match-winning chances in the first place?
One direct (and high-stakes) application of the match equity table is deciding whether to take a large cube. Say you are leading 5-3 in a match to 11 points, and your opponent has just redoubled to 8. Should you take or pass? If you take and lose 8 points, you lose the match. If you pass, the score will be 5-7 in an 11-point match, where (due to memorizing your match equity table) you know you have 36% match-winning chances. Therefore, you should only take the cube if you win this game more than 36% of the time. Deciding whether you win more or less than 36% game-winning chances is a separate skill, but it's enough to notice that this is much higher than the normal money takepoint (25%), so if it would be anywhere near a reasonable double for money you should probably pass.
Game-winning chances at various scores are also a useful input into more subtle match-score-based checker and cube decisions. See Kit Woolsey's article Five Point Match for an introduction. Learning match play is a useful skill to help move from the Intermediate to Advanced or Open level.
Rockwell-Kazaross match equity table (1-away through 9-away)
Values shown are the match-winning chances (%) for the player (whose score is on the left axis):
Precision
Tips for memorization
Neil's numbers give a good approximation at scores where both players are 3-away or more. After mastering Neil's numbers, eventually you can be memorize the values for faster recall over the board.
Match-winning chances at Crawford scores and scores where one player is 2-away need to be memorized exactly. Memorizing these particularly the Crawford scores) is a good time investment since these come up often over the board.
Focus on scores you will encounter most: first 5-point, then 7-point, then 9-point matches